Migrants: 2/3 Male, 70% Under 30. Next Come Millions by Family Reunification

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Under this photo, Der Spiegel notes that 2/3 of the migrants entering Germany are male, and 70% of them are under 30 years old. Not the women and children you usually associate with refugee flows. 

As the article makes clear, the point behind this is to first have a young, healthy male achieve a foothold in Germany, and then, using chain migration by family reunification (g, pdf) bring as many members of the extended family as possible with them. The average immediate family size of Syrian refugees is, according to this report, 6.2 people (pdf).

Let's do some calculations here. Assume Germany gets only 800,000 refugees this year. Only, say, 500,000 are granted refugee status. 70% of those are males under 30 who intend to bring as many family members as possible with them. That's 350,000 this year. Since Sigmar Gabriel has explicitly promised the world that Germany will take in 500,000 new migrants a year for the foreseeable future, let's assume that in each of 2016 and 2017, 300,000 new young unaccompanied Syrian or Iraqi males reach Germany and obtain refugee status.

That brings us to a total of 850,000 unaccompanied young Syrian males who have refugee status by 2017, which is a prerequisite to bringing family members. Wives, children, parents, brothers and sisters. The regulations are somewhat complex (see the link about family reunification), so let's conservatively assume that only 2 members of the average 6.2 members of each unaccompanied young male's family members are approved for resettlement into Germany.

That's 2,550,000 new residents of Germany.

About two new Munichs.

Only counting the family reunification from the unaccompanied males, not the 30% other migrants, with their own independent family-reunification potential. And assuming refugee flows decline in coming years.

Putting everything together, we could easily be talking about 3-4 million new migrants.

I wonder if it's occurred to German leaders to wonder why — aside from direct neighbors like Turkey and Lebanon, who had little choice — no other country on earth considers taking over 50,000 Syrian refugees to be workable or democratically legitimate, whereas Germany is going to take in at least 10 times that amount this year alone. Are all other nations on earth heartless xenophobes, or might it be the case that they are being prudent while Germany is being reckless?

The next few years will tell.

5 thoughts on “Migrants: 2/3 Male, 70% Under 30. Next Come Millions by Family Reunification

  1. InfoRadioRBB shed light on your question last weekend with a social scientiest for War, Genocide and Migration.
    (German only – Source: http://www.inforadio.de/programm/schema/sendungen/zwoelfzweiundzwanzig/201509/224732.html)

    A few interesting take aways from the interview as response to your question:
    Eastern Europe, whose elite has and still is emigrating to Western Europe needs immigration. But qualified migration. They have no interest in taking charity cases while bleeding economically/population wise due the best of their own emigrating.
    As for the white Commonwalth Nations, they choose the path of qualified immigration as opposed to unlimited migration (which is de facto the current german asylum regime).
    There are a quite a few nuggets of wisdom in this interview.

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  2. The interview with Prof. Heinsohn is worth listening to.

    Countries like Canada and New Zealand have better immigration policies based on qualitative and not merely quantitative criteria; and if Germany continues on its present course of de facto open borders and “demographic capitulation,” in the near future it may well more closely resemble Brazil than the Germany we know today.

    The vicious circle described by Heinsohn seems irrefutable: as uncontrolled, unselective immigration continues, more and more talented, qualified young people already living in Germany (even those having a migration background) will choose to leave the country.

    Of course, a nation can decide to be more generous and compassionate by taking in more refugees, even if it means less economic prosperity for all. However, no matter how many stirring speeches about humanity and solidarity are made in parliament and in the Paulskirche, I can’t imagine average Germans–nor other nationalities, for that matter–agreeing on such a saintly course.

    It appears that German politicians believe it’s possible for Germans to have their cake and eat it, too, that is, allow largely unimpeded immigration from regions like sub-Saharan Africa and yet still live in a welfare state and earn high incomes.

    Perhaps they’re not so naive. Germany, after all, is facing major challenges–fraying of the EU, high indebtedness, demographic trends. The decision to allow such vast numbers of poorly qualified migrants into Germany may be another iteration of the Klein Shock Doctrine, the creation of a disastrous situation in order to push through exploitative economic policies.

    That’s speculation, of course, but when the self-celebratory rhetoric is seen as the hollow shell it is and reality sets in, I do hope that the migrants themselves will not be scapegoated.

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  3. There is one thing bothering me about this post, which is: Migration and Asylum are two very different things. Asylum is only a temporarily given right to stay, namely as long as the situation at the asylant’s home is dire.
    My prediction is, that politicians are taking the role model stand in this refugee situation to avoid international debates about rising racism in Germany and to get others, who took none before, to accept their role too.
    Should this not work for whatever reason and the situation in Germany become problematic, Asylum selection will become stricter. May be looking at each town individually and declaring “safe spots”. This means not to only take down new refugees but also to send away old ones. While only keeping old ones, who qualify for migration.

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  4. What the German government does and what the (overwhelming majority of) the German people do not want are two diametrically opposed goals.

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