Under this photo, Der Spiegel notes that 2/3 of the migrants entering Germany are male, and 70% of them are under 30 years old. Not the women and children you usually associate with refugee flows.
As the article makes clear, the point behind this is to first have a young, healthy male achieve a foothold in Germany, and then, using chain migration by family reunification (g, pdf) bring as many members of the extended family as possible with them. The average immediate family size of Syrian refugees is, according to this report, 6.2 people (pdf).
Let's do some calculations here. Assume Germany gets only 800,000 refugees this year. Only, say, 500,000 are granted refugee status. 70% of those are males under 30 who intend to bring as many family members as possible with them. That's 350,000 this year. Since Sigmar Gabriel has explicitly promised the world that Germany will take in 500,000 new migrants a year for the foreseeable future, let's assume that in each of 2016 and 2017, 300,000 new young unaccompanied Syrian or Iraqi males reach Germany and obtain refugee status.
That brings us to a total of 850,000 unaccompanied young Syrian males who have refugee status by 2017, which is a prerequisite to bringing family members. Wives, children, parents, brothers and sisters. The regulations are somewhat complex (see the link about family reunification), so let's conservatively assume that only 2 members of the average 6.2 members of each unaccompanied young male's family members are approved for resettlement into Germany.
That's 2,550,000 new residents of Germany.
About two new Munichs.
Only counting the family reunification from the unaccompanied males, not the 30% other migrants, with their own independent family-reunification potential. And assuming refugee flows decline in coming years.
Putting everything together, we could easily be talking about 3-4 million new migrants.
I wonder if it's occurred to German leaders to wonder why — aside from direct neighbors like Turkey and Lebanon, who had little choice — no other country on earth considers taking over 50,000 Syrian refugees to be workable or democratically legitimate, whereas Germany is going to take in at least 10 times that amount this year alone. Are all other nations on earth heartless xenophobes, or might it be the case that they are being prudent while Germany is being reckless?
The next few years will tell.