Germany is Not ‘Doing Away with Itself’ and Will Never be Islamized

I must say, following the migrant crisis is most stimulating. But just for clarity's sake, I want to draw a few lines.

I am definitely not a believer in the silly thesis of Eurabia, or, to quote the title of Thilo Sarrazin's 2010 book, that Germany is 'doing away with itself' ('Deutschland schafft sich ab'). It's also silly to talk about the 'Islamization' of Europe.

Germany is not destroying itself and will never be Islamized. There are 4 million Muslims living in Germany right now, and most are, of course, productive, law-abiding citizens. Residents of German with non-German roots have in aggregate lower incomes and less education than ethnic Germans. They are also disproportionately likely to commit crimes and live on social welfare benefits. But the vast majority don't do these things, of course. And the social deficits of 'Muslims' as a whole mask huge differences within the German Muslim population. The principal reason for these somewhat disappointing numbers are Germany's 2.2 million Turks, who do much worse than Germans on almost every measure of social adjustment. Other Muslim subgroups do better than ethnic Germans.

Even the incorporation of 3 million new mostly-Muslim migrants won't change this state of affairs much. We're just beginning to get information about the migrants coming in now. The consensus seems to be that about 20% have college degrees, and the average level of education seems to be about 6th grade. Assuming they stay, about 30% will probably be able to learn fluent German, and another 30% will learn acceptable German. The top 20-30% in terms of cognitive ability and education — the engineers, lawyers, doctors, accountants, nurses, teachers, pharmacists, dentists, etc. — will adapt successfully to life in Germany. They may not be able to practice their former profession, but they'll find work and integrate easily.

The next-lower 30-40% will get some sort of work, possibly after a very long delay. They'll find work in areas in which a limited knowledge of German isn't a problem. Warehouse worker, tailor, cashier, butchers' or bakers' assistant, mover, electrician, nurses' aide, home healthcare worker, helper in a family-run shop or waiter in a family-run restaurant, Uber driver, park groundskeeper, janitor, etc. The kind of thing that immigrants do now in Germany.

The least-qualified 30-40% will live off social welfare benefits and odd jobs. They won't ever learn more than a rudimentary vocabulary of 500-1000 words, and will be disproportionately likely to commit crimes.

The Magic Pixie Dust crowd wants us to see all the new migrants as a wonderful opportunity. They will immediately start inventing fabulous new products, obediently work themselves stiff, teach Germans how to love again, and fill our neighborhoods with nothing but Vibrant Diversity™. The doomsayers say they'll never find jobs, they'll all turn into criminals, they'll carry out terrorist attacks, live off social welfare benefits for generations after generation, and drag Germany down into poverty and mediocrity.

Neither the Magic Pixie Dust crowd nor the doomsayers are right, if you ask me. The current crop of migrants will have hugely diverse experiences. Some will turn out successful, others,. as I have argued, will greatly increase the scale of existing social problems in German inner cities. I think this is not a good policy outcome, which is why I have been highlighting the very real problems migrants will bring with them. But none of these problems will come within light-years of destabilizing German or any other European society. All West European countries currently have severe social problem in their inner cities, and most have much worse problems than Germany. At no point have these social problems come anywhere near close to threatening the overall stability or prosperity of these countries. And they never will. The numbers just aren't there, and never will be.

And as for Islamization, this is also a chimera. The new immigrants are also going to have a huge variety of approaches to Islam, from fervent fundamentalism to a totally secular viewpoint. Most of the women wear headscarves, but I know from experience that you can't tell anything merely from this practice. So they'll build more mosques in Germany. So what? Doesn't bother me. More than 9 out of 10 Germans will still not be Muslim. The number of Germans who convert to Islam will continue being infinitesimally small. Contemporary Germans are simply not interested in any traditional religion of any flavor, except perhaps Buddhism.

As for undermining 'German values', this is also a silly nebulous fear. How can a country in which the most popular movie in recent years was called 'Fuck You, Goethe!' (misspelled in German!) claim that the masses are still nourished by the elegance of Weimar classicism? As is the case all over the world, Minecraft and Apple will be a thousand times more culturally influential on the average German, whatever their religion, than supposed 'traditional' German values which are kept alive only among aging cohorts of the educated bourgeoisie.

And no, Muslims are not going to take over Europe. Muslim families will probably continue being somewhat larger, but only for a few generations. And as for the notion of millions of Muslims totally swamping Europe, that is not going to happen. As foolish as I find current EU/German policy, the notion that Europe would actually admit massive flows of tens or hundreds of millions of Muslims is just silly. As we have seen recently, European governments can be moved to swift action once they (belatedly) realize the scope of the crisis. There are still open-borders dreamers in the ivory tower, but in the current political climate, they are being totally ignored. 

7 thoughts on “Germany is Not ‘Doing Away with Itself’ and Will Never be Islamized

  1. I understand there have been far-sighted Roman politicians who assured their fellow countrymen that Rome would not be Christianized, ever. They even were quite naughty to the pesky few Christian activists who begged for tolerance and understanding. Didn’t they know they deserve a top tier conference once a year to voice their grievances? And those borders? Solid as a rock. Those barbarians? Future taxpayers who’ll colonise our marshes, yay! Yes, irritatingly unruly, but they’ll adapt. And they’re so few! 10 of millions of Roman citizens here, bands of tens of thousands there. Ok, occasionally hundreds of thousands, but it’s mostly young men! They’ll settle down and marry. Let’s be merry, too! Prof Hammel is. Give & take some technical concerns that won’t poop the party. Because. And numbers. Also, never.

    As for those nebulous ‘German values’ that can’t be undermined, because you couldn’t tell apart Peking from Berlin except for some culinary details and our proles wearing more base caps, how about boring law & order, both German and European, the kind that is presently trampled upon with abandon, as it has been for the last twenty years in whatever field of politics, out of convenience, whim, and recklessness? Increasingly. Frantically. Hell, that bucket will stop right here! Check the title of this piece–didn’t you note is says Not and Never, dummy?

    Earnestly, I’m more concerned with the fecklessness and corruption of our political class, yet I’m afraid, as does Boualem Sansal, (f) an Algerian writer and former official with a Phd in economics, their Muslim brethren might profit. In 711 some corrupt Visigoth faction invited over some ten thousand Muslim young men. Millions of Visigoth subjects here, taxpaying, obedient, civil, twice housebroken by foreign conquest–some angry young men there, what could go wrong? Don’t be a bigot. Also, numbers. Besides, our elected leaders never fail, us, ever. Don’t you read history? Da muss ich immer ein wenig lächeln, as does our spiritual Mistress Käßmann.*

    * when we’re done hanging, drawing, and quartering that other guy, youknowwho, can we then please take Ms K and, err, shut’er up in a closet?

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  2. @MM: Although I smirk with ironical pleasure every time I read an earnest academic urging us to accept the fact that there’s a new Migration of Peoples underway — are they aware how the last one turned out? — I think the historical analogy is not on point. By the time the various Goths got to it, the Roman Empire was already running on fumes, mostly due to over-expansion, internecine conflict, and literally centuries of misrule. Read your Gibbon, sir!

    There is no comparison to current European polities. As feckless as some European politicians are, the polities of Europe are nowhere near the brink of collapse. In fact, they’re doing pretty well, in broad historical perspective. Extremely well, actually.

    What Germany is doing with this spurt of uncontrolled mass migration is needlessly and foolishly importing a bunch of expensive social problems. Crime, unemployment, and ghetto-ization will increase noticeably. But neither Germany nor Europe will utterly collapse.

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  3. “Neither the Magic Pixie Dust crowd nor the doomsayers are right, if you ask me.”

    So it is.

    Bedazzled Germany as opposed to Benighted Germany.

    And never the twain shall meet.

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  4. I still wonder why such a post is in the minority. Why does the mass of media articles have to be either no- or all-problems? Beats me.
    Of course there will be problems, and they will arise faster and more massive than before Merkel’s announcement. But they won’t come close to anywhere near unsolvable. Given awareness of these problems and the will to tackle them.
    Congrats, Mr. Hammel! Congrats to reason.

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  5. Andrew, Gibbon is laying at my bedside, unabridged. I think he is nowadays commonly misunderstood as consequence of postwar and post 68 historical revisionism, catchphrase: “pots, not people”, that is, migration as a rule is painless, gradual, and peaceful, as noble savages can do no wrong–culture (pots) is transferred, hardly people, certainly not by violent replacement. Gibbon didn’t see it that way, hardly anyone did pre WWII. There’s a gaggle of Razib approved scientists who agree, among them historians Peter Heather (bad writer, though) and Brian Ward-Perkins (both labeled as revisionists by, err, the revisionists), historian Peter Turchin, anthropologists Peter Frost and Henry Harpending, and physiscist cum polymath gadfly Gregory Cochran, the latter two authors of The 10,000 Year Explosion

    Over-expansion applied then and now, both with the US and EU imperium, internecine conflicts too, though our elites handle those smoothly, so far, plastering things over at taxpayer’s expense. Centuries of misrule isn’t quite right, as the late empire had instituted quite efficient reforms that cared for more than 200 years of restoration–we certainly have had decades of EU misrule, though, masked by economic efficiency gains for the time being. That’s over, now. Steve had a post lately with extracts of Gibbon’s Decline and Fall, that depict with eery detail the parallels between present and antique bureaucratic failure and corruption, including the ideological superstructure, Christianity, which is both beneficial and explosive when the time is right, or wrong.

    A quickie–Edward Gibbon on the Dangers of Guest Worker Programs:

    “The conduct which the emperor Probus had adopted in the disposal of the vanquished was imitated by Diocletian and his associates. The captive barbarians, exchanging death for slavery, were distributed among the provincials and assigned to those districts (in Gaul the territories of Amiens, Beauvais, Cambray, Treves, Langres, and Troyes are particularly specified) which had been depopulated by the calamities of war. They were usefully employed as shepherds and husbandmen but were denied the exercise of arms, except when it was found expedient to enroll them in the military service. Nor did the emperors refuse the property of lands with a less servile tenure to such of the barbarians as solicited the protection of Rome. They granted a settlement to several colonies of the Carpi, the Basternae, and the Sarmatians, and by a dangerous indulgence permitted them in some measure to retain their national manners and independence. Among the provincials it was a subject of flattering exaltation that the barbarian, so lately an object of terror, now cultivated their lands, drove their cattle to the neighboring fair, and contributed to his labor to the public plenty. They congratulated their masters on the powerful accession of subjects and soldiers; but they forgot to observe that secret enemies , insolent from favor or desperate from oppression, were introduced into the heart of the empire.”

    As for Europe (not?) utterly collapsing–whether it takes decades or centuries, I’m not happy with either option. As the putsch is unfolding these musings are pretty much moot, of course.

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  6. Unrelated, FWIW–Veronika Bellmann, Christian Democrat MP for Saxonia, criticises her fellow party member Angela Merkel harshly (though she seems wont to do that anyway):

    Angela Merkel ahnt vermutlich, dass sie manche ihrer Ziele nicht durch Entscheidungen nach demokratischen Prozessen erreicht. Also schafft sie überraschend Fakten, nach denen sich alle sehr bemühen und kreativ gestalterisch tätig werden müssen, damit diese Entscheidungen alternativlos werden. (Angela Merkel probably senses that she can’t achieve some of her goals through democratic procedures. Therefore she creates facts by surprise so that afterwards everyone has to get busy and creative to make these decisions mandatory) Die Energiewende, das Asylversprechen gehören dazu. Letzteres trägt sich aber nicht wie bei der Atomlobby auf dem Rücken einer gut betuchten Branche aus, sondern auf dem Rücken von durch den Massenansturm maßlos belasteten Behördenmitarbeitern, Polizisten und Kommunen und wegen der „Ausnahmeregelung“ auch auf dem Rücken der Flüchtlinge. Die können das Grenze-auf-Grenze-zu-Spiel nun überhaupt nicht verstehen und ignorieren es einfach, wodurch die Rechtssicherheit ein weiteres Mal auf der Strecke bleibt.

    Als vergleichsweise wenig Asylanten im Lande waren und man mit den Nichtintegrationswilligen der zweiten und dritten Einwanderergeneration zu kämpfen hatte, sagte die Kanzlerin noch, „Multikulti“ sei gescheitert. Jetzt wo die ganze Welt eingeladen ist, soll das plötzlich funktionieren und natürlich alles ganz ohne „deutsche Leitkultur“. Selbst zwei gut integrierte syrische Ärzte aus einer Klinik meines Wahlkreises sagen: „Die Deutschen sind völlig verrückt und sich der Konsequenzen nicht bewusst.“

    OT, too, just for shucks, it’s getting bizarro–Claudia Roth bei “Maischberger” über Flüchtlinge: “Es werden auch Menschen kommen, die nicht unmittelbar verwertbar sind.” (there will also come people who won’t be usable immediately)

    She’s wrong, of course, purveyors of consumer goods and welfare industry will take taxpayer’s money with gusto right from day one, which can’t happen without migrants as required funnel. Incidentally, Claudia is the Prophetess of that new religion, PBUH.

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