Brexit Fails 47-53

I'm outsourcing this prediction to Kevin Drum:

My sense—though I'd prefer actual data if anyone has collected it—is that secession votes usually follow a pattern: the leavers get an upward bump a few weeks before voting day, but stayers get a bump in the few days before voting day. A fair number of people flirt with the idea of leaving, but then get scared at the last minute and decide to vote for the status quo instead. Basically, in any secession referendum, I figure that Leave needs to be polling at 55 percent or higher to have a realistic chance of winning.

As of today, the polls are still tied, so my guess is that Brexit will fail on Thursday. If I'm right that about 5 percent of the leavers will get cold feet and change their minds, the final tally will be something like 53-47 percent in favor of remaining in the EU. We'll find out in a couple of days.

14 thoughts on “Brexit Fails 47-53

  1. Or they will go down to their local shopping precinct the day of and take a look around and say “holy shit, we really do have to get out”.

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  2. Noope.

    My best guess is either people were lying to pollsters or the press was consistently under-reporting real support.

    I’m sure the the dynamic of leave lost some support on election day but I think most people badly underestimated how strong leave support had been.

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  3. Yes, indeed – that’s an interesting thought.

    I’m thoroughly impressed by the dynamics unfolding, too.

    One, nobody expected that outcome; the bets were against it (and I like Andrew’s tweet about the reasons for it happening notwithstanding :-))

    – all is not lost, Donald!

    Two, there seems to be a peak in “WTF is the EU” Google searches AFTER the poll 🙂

    – they say the old took the EU away from the young; that may well be (old white men, I suppose…), but who googles WTF is the EU? So, to quote a line from a book who’s title I have forgotten, The Lord hath given, and The Lord can very well take it away again, if things get out of hand.

    Three, not even a political murder in the streets could sway the outcome; that might save a life or two in future

    – so, good show, Britons.

    But the very best part of it, is the butthurt reaction of the EU. VERY statesmanlike: Go on, get out, and see if I care! Take you things with you! I’m better off without you anyway!

    Not one said something like: “I’m sorry to hear that, but the people’s will is the people’s will…” or, “Let’s see what the British parliament has to say about this before we react”. Or some other level-headed statement – or did I miss it?

    This, one, puts British parliament into an impossible squeeze from two sides, and, two, it shows that the EU-Top has an allergic reaction to opposition and uncovering of mechanisms.

    That is not the reaction of statesmen, who are confident in their conscience that what they do is the best they can do, for the people that put them in power over their lives; it’s the reaction of thieves being caught in the act.

    A lot of people came out of the murky shadows to give a warning statement with official titles even I have hardly heard of, and who I am sure no- one voted for, and who I am equally sure are accountable to people I don’t know either. Who the hell ist the “Chief of the Euro-Group”? The Head of Commissions? A Director General? Of course, one can guess, and one can Google, but it doesn’t sound that very democratic, does it…

    Yay Britons, once again, for wielding the torchlight. And for being willing to pay for your beliefs – not other peoples’ beliefs.

    http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/06/brexit-google-search-trends-tech/

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  4. Now HERE’S a whammy:

    Are they really preparing a “second referendum”?

    With that reaction by the EU top I’ve just described? “Bed wetting and toy throwing” and I’m still laughing… 😀

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  5. So you think the UK has somehow isolated and wasn’t allowed to establish trade and economic relationships with Australia in New Zealand in the last forty years?

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  6. Not being diplomatic…
    Australia sells wine to the UK for example, and the estimated cost of the EU import duty on Australian wine exports to the UK totalled more than A$42 million in 2015.

    Over the years it has become harder for Australians to study, live and work in the UK aside from the humiliating ‘other humans’ queue at border control when flying in and out of the UK. Older Australians and New Zealanders talk about the UK joining the EEC/EU as the beginning of the serious debate about ditching the monarchy and becoming republics. Some considered it a betrayal.

    Here’s a little history bearing in mind that Australia still doesn’t have an EU FTA after all this time and the EU’s subsidised agricultural products are imported/dumped into the Australian market putting Australian farmers out of business:

    “The rationale for establishing an official diplomatic mission in Brussels was to improve trade links between Australia and six common market countries (France, Italy, Federal Republic of Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg). It served as a preparation for the entry of the United Kingdom (UK).[15] On 16 August 1961, [Australian] Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies expressed reservations about the future of the Commonwealth of Nations following Britain’s application to join:

    We believe that the entry of Great Britain into the European Economic Community would have far-reaching political implications. As we see it at present, we believe that it would mean a substantial departure from, or even an abandonment of, the traditional British policy of the balance of power … a decision to enter the European Economic Community expressed to be a permanent body, and with political overtones of the clearest kind, would represent the abandonment of the old position and the acceptance of permanent European involvements.[16]

    The UK’s membership of the EU led to the dismantling of a preferential trade arrangement with most Commonwealth countries, including Australia.[17] It also caused a major change to Australia’s trade policy, turning the Australian Government’s priorities towards finding new markets in Asia (and also recognising the People’s Republic of China in 1973). Australia’s preferential treatment in the UK was to be phased out, with canned and dried fruit industries suffering a decline in exports.[18] For many years thereafter, the Australian representatives in Brussels demanded compensation for the losses incurred from the reduced British market. The Government eventually accepted that it needed a new or ‘smarter’ approach in order to trade with European common market countries. Such an approach embodied building a strong knowledge-base of the economic and political developments in Europe, and accordingly, adjusting Australia’s policies in order to ensure the maximum benefits for Australian exporters and businesses in general.[19]

    Disagreements between Australia and the European Community over market tariffs and agricultural subsidies escalated to become a serious international issue. A trade dispute over agricultural subsidies between Australia on the one hand, and the European Community, United States of America (USA) and Japan individually on the other hand led to the creation of the Cairns Group (chaired by Australia). The Cairns Group, which was established in 1986, called for the total elimination of government subsidies for agriculture.”

    I have no idea why the media commentary on this subject is bullshit. I’ll have a look at Hansard (transcript of debate in the Australian Parliament) when I have some time.

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  7. I highly recommend reading The Guardian’s online reader comments, they are irrational, hysterical, ahistorical, allergic to democracy and side splittingly funny. Two days so far of champagne comedy.

    The German response seems to be confusion and a curious lack of comprehension of a functioning democracy, Merkel’s ‘no hurry, let us think about it, what could it mean…’. Whereas the response of the French is more, ‘go on, fuck you, leave now, we never wanted you anyway’.

    I find it disturbing bordering on alarming that David Cameron is not in his office right now shredding and boxing up his possessions. His announcement of his future resignation as PM in October is a significant departure from convention nevermind the broken promise on immediately triggering the Brexit.

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  8. Today is much better, I’m not so worried now that the thing that pretends to be democracy in Western Europe has infected the UK as the power shifts within the Conservative and Opposition party rooms have become visible, breaking tribal solidarity last night and showing up in tweets and news reporting. The cleansing, unstoppable force of British democracy is happily going about its business establishing the new order. Majestic stuff. Poor Germans, they should get some.

    I am loving/hating all these Millenial EU anchor babies in London signing petitions, crying about their stolen future and demonstrating no knowledge of British history between the 1990s and the abolition of slavery. It’s like some leftwing circus.

    And I’m disappointed that no-one so far has called for the restoration of the arrangements with Australia and New Zealand that the UK was forced to give up as the price of EEC/EU entry. Maybe that will happen when Scotland takes a breath.

    Australia has been doggedly reluctant to abandon its ties to the UK; a referendum failed in 1999 to replace the Queen with a President. However we currently have a republican PM on the eve of an election, so calls for the AU ain’t going to come from him.

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  9. Hmmm!

    After the ‘transplantation rejection‘- type- reaction to the Brexit by EU top brass officials, I do thinx to myself:

    Methinks it strange, that they should reject Great Britain, but yet hold onto Greece – yes, ze Euro vs. ze Pound, but what about Turkey(g)? And while we’re at it, Syria? And why not Israel?

    – Well, others, too, seem to have come to that conclusion – a south stream EU all the way down to the Suez Canal.

    But why stop there? What about the otherEurovision” Song Contest contestants (let’s forget about Australia for the moment, shall we? this is serious business!) – aren’t we taking in migrants from all of these countries, where the North African Arab spring sprang sprung?

    That’s youth from all over the place! Young people galore! That would really give that underhand new name “Club Med” a real new ring! A real new ring around the Mediterranean!

    SO THERE IT IS: Merkel’s PLAN B FROM OUTER SPACE: The NEW EU! (TM)

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