Welcome the Skilled Workers of…Tomorrow? 2025? Never?

Via Steve Sailer, excerpts of a Financial Times articles entitled 'Most refugees to be jobless for years, German minister warns': 

Up to three quarters of Germany’s refugees will still be unemployed in five years’ time, according to a government minister, in a stark admission of the challenges the country faces in integrating its huge migrant population.

Aydan Özoğuz, commissioner for immigration, refugees and integration, told the Financial Times that only a quarter to a third of the newcomers would enter the labour market over the next five years, and “for many others we will need up to 10”.

…Initially, the influx of so many working-age, highly-motivated immigrants spurred optimism that they would mitigate Germany’s acute skills shortage and solve the demographic crisis posed by its dangerously low birth rate. Dieter Zetsche, chief executive of carmaker Daimler, said the refugees could lay the foundation for the “next German economic miracle”.

But those hopes have faded as a new realism about the migrants’ lack of qualifications and language skills sinks in. “There has been a shift in perceptions,” Ms Özoğuz told the FT. Many of the first Syrian refugees to arrive in Germany were doctors and engineers, but they were succeeded by “many, many more who lacked skills”.

Or, to put it another way, 'German minister finally abandons airbrushing propaganda'. Anyone with reasonable experience of the world could immediately see, in real time, that most of the 2015 arrivals weren't going integrate into Germany. All you had to do was use common sense and knowledge of the world, two aspects of the human condition which were declared to be verboten in Germany from August 2015 to January 1, 2016. 

Those of us who clung to them immediately saw that most of these young males were going to have a hard time integrating, based on the following evidence:

First, most of the new arrivals didn't look very smart or conscientious. Studies show (pdf) that complete strangers can make judgments about someone based only on a photograph with better-than-random accuracy. And of course, we do this all the time, every day, for very good reasons. If I showed you a photograph of people leaving a monster truck rally, and people leaving a classical music concert — showing only their faces — you'd be able to tell which was which. We make these sorts of judgments every time we leave the house, and they're generally pretty reliable. If they weren't, we'd soon notice.

Second, When they were interviewed, all but a few of the migrants showed complete ignorance of the countries they were bound for, which were invariably Germany or Sweden. They knew not a single word of either of those languages, and were ignorant of the history, climate, food, culture, or even size of these countries. When asked why they wanted to go to Sweden or Germany, they always responded because there is money, jobs, work there and Merkel invited us and they need workers and they're building houses for us (g). Occasionally, some would say they had 'relatives' in some German or Swedish city or another. What you almost never heard was "I have an affinity for German culture", or "I believe I can contribute", or "I studied German for five years in school", or "I heard Firm X needs 800 welders, and I have 10 years experience in exactly that kind of welding".

Three, Some of the new arrivals said they were fleeing war or persecution in their home countries. But for every one who said that, there were at least 5 who said they had left their home countries because there were "no opportunities" (keine Perspektiven) for them there. Since most of these interviews were conducted by notoriously gullible German journalists, no follow-up questions were asked. The average German journalist has only a liberal-arts education in which things such as demand curves, marginal cost v. sunk cost, economies of scale, amortization, etc. never come up.

Their only understanding of how national economies work comes from moralizing discussions by leftist sociologists and philosophers, who themselves are usually ignorant of basic economic principles. The journalists therefore graduate knowing as much about how the economy works as a theology student knows about quantum mechanics. The problem is that a theologian can do his job perfectly well without knowing quantum mechanics, but a journalist cannot do his without at least some basic understanding of economic principles. To most German journalists, the "economy" is just a mysterious black box designed by those in power, whether intentionally or not, to exploit the poor. Really, what more is there to know?

So when the "refugee" said they had no prospects at home, the German journalist just shook his head in commiseration at the injustice of the world, thinking of some suitable Brecht poem about how the working class are eternally screwed no matter where they live. While the sensible viewer at home said: Why don't you ask him why he couldn't find a job? After all, even in poor countries, most able-bodied males are able to find work. Why can't this guy? Perhaps because he has no skills? Perhaps because he can't read? Perhaps because he stole from his last employer? Perhaps because he's a drug-dealing murderer like Hamza?

But no, the typical German journalist will never ask these things (even though he would consider them very relevant for someone of his social class) because the poor are to be regarded as a fungible mass, not as individuals with agency just like him.

In any event, German is now stuck with these people. My personal 20-60-20 prediction hasn't changed much since 2015: The brightest 20% (mostly those who already have an education or job skills) will probably make a successful transition, learning fluent German, getting jobs, and living independently. The bottom 20% will never learn anything but a few crude phrases, and will drift off into the underworld of black-market labor, organized crime, prostitution, and/or drug dealing. The middle 60% will learn a functional form of pidgin German relevant to whatever work they find, which will be intermittent, low-paid labor on construction sites or in warehouses or in government-subsidized job programs. They will never master German grammar or general vocabulary, and will always speak their native language at home. Perhaps a few will find stable work which will actually get them off the welfare rolls, but most won't.

If only German politicians had accepted these obvious facts when they were evident to most people, we could have had a much more honest debate.

15 thoughts on “Welcome the Skilled Workers of…Tomorrow? 2025? Never?

  1. Just wildly guessing but I would assume that 10-50-40 would be better odds, maybe 10-60-30 at best.

    And people wonder why Hungary and Poland are not eager to help out Germany on this issue?


  2. Even if Poland wanted to help there is no guarantee that the economic migrants will stay put east of the Oder. As this Polish journalist points out, these people are effectively engaged in a game of welfare arbitrage . Of the Syrians earlier granted asylum by Poland they have all left now because the benefits handouts were not as big as they could obtain elsewhere. These were Christians also by the way, just to avoid any Muslim stereotyping.


  3. Absolutely. Back in 2015 a Polish charity was trying to help Syrian Christians, giving them rent-free apartments and Polish lessons…. and they almost all left for Germany in the middle of the night (leaving not a thank you note even). Supposedly some became disillusioned in Germany and wanted back but I don’t know if they ever actually returned.

    Apporting out people to countries is simply kabuki theater to make it seem as if Merkel’s disastion wasn’t the disastrous stink bomb of government incompetence that anyone with rational facilities could tell that it would be. These people have a proven track record of ignoring national borders standing between them and payouts from the German taxpayer.


  4. “the elites do not seem to realise how hard it is for their less fortunate compatriots to get a decent job”

    They realize they just don’t give a fvck.

    “you also assume that the welfare state will be able to provide despite the increased demands put on it or will even still be affordable”

    Look up something called the “market state” that some analysts think will supplant the nation state. In that model the welfare state is drastically cut back as governments primarily interact with each other (rather than with their own citizen).

    A non-stop flow of unskilled, uneducated and workshy angry young men overburdening the system and causing it to collapse might actaully be, if not part of the plan, regarded as a positive side benefit.

    This would explain why so many governments in Europe seem to regard the mass importation of culturally alien young men who won’t be able to assimilate as job number one.


  5. And the middle 60% will probably NOT be able to find Germany on a map in 5 years, will have absolutely NO interest in German history, and, after awhile, will believe any threadbare islamic propaganda that Salafists want to pitch to them. If it means killing kuffars, so be it. That is the reality. Ask France how that is working out.


  6. Hi Andrew, maybe I have missed you dealing with this question in an earlier post, but do you agree that the chancellor, Angela Merkel abrogated article 16a of the German constitution in 2015, effectively breaking the law, when she allowed hundreds of thousands of complete strangers to cross multiple EU member states borders in order to reach Germany? And if so, why do you think she has not faced any legal challenge over such a serious breach of the law?

    The link below in the, ”London Review of Books”, gives an excellent summary of those days in 2015, when the German government opened the floodgates to Islam.



  7. Hey Andrew, from the study you linked to: “the current study has provided strong evidence that people use facial cues for making trait judgements but failed to document accuracy in those judgements.”
    Just saying…
    By the way, you could write a post on how you made butt love to a unicorn in an alien space ship and your fans would congratulate you on a great post about the migrant invasion. No need for studies and stuff…


  8. Yeah Schorsch, but Andrew writes well, makes rational arguments AND can cite studies to back up his thesis. Unlike the current German government and bootlicking press, he understand what a mess uncontrolled, illegal migration is. If you read him only to feed your twisted butt-love fantasies, maybe you should look elsewhere.


  9. Put simply: she didn’t violate the German constitution, because back in 2015 it still included the right for asylum. Furthermore, Germany signed the Geneva Convention of Human Rights, which includes providing shelter for asylum seekers.

    Islam, eh? Have you even met anyone who came here in the last years in person? How do you know so well about the religion of everyone?


  10. Yet, as the literature review which begins the study shows, the majority of studies *do* in fact show a better-than-random ability to determine personality traits. And you rely on heuristic judgments like this every day.

    As for commenters, I think most of them are just satisfied to see a bit of common-sense applied to the migrant issue, since it so rarely happens in the German press. Also, I have never, and will never, use the word ‘invasion’, and I have posted repeatedly about why that’s a silly thing to say. But I try not to censor my commenters.


  11. German Constitution-Basic Law.

    Article 16a
    [Right of asylum]
    (1) Persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right
    of asylum.
    (2) Paragraph (1) of this Article may NOT (my emphasis) be invoked by a person
    who enters the federal territory from a member state of
    the European Communities or from another third state in
    which application of the Convention Relating to the Status
    of Refugees and of the Convention for the Protection of
    Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms is assured.

    Which EU country’s that are signatories to the above mentioned in paragraph 2, Dr Benway, did almost one million migrants NOT walk through to reach Germany?

    You know perfectly well what the answer is. I would suggest that one does not need to be a lawyer to see that Merkel in all probability broke the law.
    Either the German constitution is not worth the paper it is written on and can be dispensed with when inconvenient, or it is the framework which protects our democracy’s and ”We the People”, from irresponsible and dangerous politicians such as Merkel.

    ”When Merkel declared the German borders open, there had been no cabinet decision to this effect and no official statement in the Bundestag. Since the opposition didn’t ask, as Merkel knew they wouldn’t, nobody knows to this day what sort of order, legal or not, by whom and when, was given to the police.” Wolfgang Streeck.


  12. ”Also, I have never, and will never, use the word ‘invasion”’

    If any country, such as Germany, has a policy that allows never-ending mass immigration without assimilation, what do we call it? Invasion or colonisation, or does it even matter what you call it? I feel that we are probably dancing on the head of a semantic pin.


  13. And now I could point to studies that show that most studies show vastly different result when they are replicated (which hardly ever happens anyway…)
    Don’t you agree that claiming that something has been proven is at least slightly misleading in this case?
    Now this is kinda silly but I’d say if you fixed the teeth of the monster truck crowd, got them neat haircuts and slapped glasses and some make up on them and have them stream out of a concert hall… nevermind, they’d still be fat.

    I know you never used the word invasion.


  14. Don’t worry he’ll be fine. It’s all good.
    Neither unicorns nor aliens will ever be harmed because of my twisted fantasies.


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